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Hey, it’s Clay at claytrader.com
Let’s talk about trading overconfidence,
and how it really will kill your results,
it will kill your ambitions
in a very cruel way,
because the way it works is
it actually makes sense for you
to act the way you’re acting,
so nobody is calling anybody
stupid for acting this way,
because again, it does make sense.
It’s a logical thought process to have,
however, that is why the
markets are so tricky.
That is why trading as a whole,
and finding success is a challenge,
because the human mind,
and what seems to be logical
isn’t actually the way,
isn’t actually the path
that you should be taking.
And to use a backbone for this,
I wanna use marijuana stocks,
because that way it allows
me to kill the theory.
So there’s no theory here,
it’s not me talking in hypotheticals,
this is something that’s
actually happened,
and it illustrates perfectly
how this overconfidence
starts to creep its way in,
how it’s formed, and then
how it can really just
destroy you as a trader if
you’re trying to find success.
And this pertains not
necessarily just new traders
who are beginners to the
stock market or any market,
but even just veteran traders.
It’s always a good reminder
to have and understand.
Now, to offer a little context here
so that again, you can see
that there’s no theory.
A while ago, I did this video.
And in fact, did it on February 22nd,
so it’s been literally as of
the recording of this video
several several months.
And I offered up a warning
regarding a few of these marijuana stocks.
And at the end of the day, as
a kind of a little nutshell,
I just said hey, all
I’m saying is I get it.
A lot of you have seen success, I get it.
A lot of you are making money.
But just consider the fact
that there is a bubble
right now taking place,
and that as of right now,
not much skill has been
required to make money.
There hasn’t been a huge
need for an actual strategy.
And just consider that maybe
the reason why you’re making money,
maybe the reason why you’ve made money
is because of the bubble,
and when bubbles occur,
no skill is required, because
everybody’s making money
’cause things just keep
getting higher and higher.
That was the premise, is just hey,
offering up a warning
that maybe, just maybe,
your profits have come
from luck and not skill.
And I don’t say this in a
I told you so type of way,
but I say it in a I’ve seen many bubbles,
and not just within the stock market.
You think back to the
whole real estate bubble,
and how everybody made money
as a quote unquote real
estate investor back then,
when in all actuality, no,
it’s just because the market
was in some big bubble
and it kept going bigger and bigger.
And that was the general idea
of what I was talking about here.
And then right here behind
the scenes on YouTube
I always show you what sort of
likes and dislikes we’re getting.
And here, had 69.3% likes.
Which is really bad, actually.
In fact, I’m pretty sure this
is the worst video I’ve ever done.
My average is 95% likes.
So literally 25% below
what the average is.
That’s cray, this is quite literally
the worst video I’m aware
of that I’ve ever done.
And of course, it was all so much of,
“Hey, Clay, you’re a hater.”
“Hey, Clay, you’re jealous.”
“There is so much more coming,
“you know, there’s more to come.
“You’re just coming across as bitter,
“you’re coming across as
“trying to be negative as a naysayer,
“what do you mean that
I’m just getting lucky?
“What do you mean that
there’s no skill involved?”
And majority, not the majority, but a lot,
especially if you go to that video
and read through the comments section,
I mean, I’m just being told
that I don’t know what I’m talking about,
I’m a hater, I’m being jealous.
And again, I understand.
I’m not mad about it, and I
see where they’re coming from,
because yeah, if you’re having success
and then somebody’s coming and saying,
well I mean could you consider
at least the possibility
that your success is based right now
on luck, and not actual skill?
I can see how that would,
“(scoffs) You can’t, no
you’re just being negative.”
So that is, right there,
that is the background.
This is not me talking theory,
this is something that has
played out, and like I said,
given it happened back in February,
we’ve had almost an entire year
to see how this all has played out.
So let’s see if I was
barking up the right tree,
or I was just being a hater
and just trying to be negative.
Or if I was actually giving
some real life advice
from well, past experience.
So here we have one of
the marijuana stocks ACB,
and this truly is the
evolution of overconfidence.
So let’s quickly think about
what was going on here.
So in October of 2017, this
thing was down around $2.25,
then went up as high as $12.
That’s a 433% move.
But this is where things get pretty rough.
Things go down to $4.
And the pretty rough part is
not that it dropped 66.7%,
this is the truly rough part right here.
Then it went back up to
$12 for a move of 200%,
so think about it, something drops 66.7%
and then goes up to $12?
That is crazy.
And those sorts of movements
build false confidence,
because think about all the
bad habits you could have,
and then all of a sudden
the price goes up 200% back up to $12.
Once again, I can see how
people would be overconfident.
Well yeah, it’ll go back up.
Then it dropped back down to $5.
That’s a 58.3% move, and
then once again, is now,
or at the time of the
video, was back up 55%,
and that was February 2019,
like I said, when I
offered that warning video.
‘Cause I see how this is going,
and I thought, you know what,
I better offer a warning.
‘Cause I know a lot of
people have made money,
and I know a lot of people have sat
through some really tough times.
I mean from $12 to $4, you know people are
holding and buying more,
holding and buying more,
and sure, it did ultimately work out
because it went back up to $12.
But this sort of price
action, this is not normal.
This is what bubbles look like,
where you have big swings,
but within the big swings,
the market does keep
trending higher and higher.
Big swings, but higher, higher,
big swings, but price keeps
putting in lower highs,
or excuse me, higher highs, lower lows,
and you know, just keeps
getting, or excuse me,
higher lows and higher highs. There we go.
And this is what’s gonna,
I mean people just keep making money
because of this bizarre price action
within the context of a overall bubble,
and then you have just
this overconfidence growing and growing.
And of course people are gonna think
well no, it’s gonna keep on going.
I mean, it made runs of 433% and 200%.
It’s only quote unquote up 55% right now
from its previous lows,
so it’s got room to go.
It’s gonna keep on going.
And then this is where
you always need to be,
and I see it all the time,
and I like to just call
it the prodigy illusion.
What is a prodigy?
Well a prodigy is a person
endowed with exceptional
qualities or abilities.
So you have lots of beginner traders,
you have lots of new traders,
and they’re seeing success.
And they just think,
wow, I am made for this.
I am cut out for this.
I was the same exact way.
So I mean, I don’t say this in a
I’m so much better than you,
I said no, I’ve been there before,
but I was the same way
thinking that I was much
better than I actually was
when I first got started,
thinking you know what?
Now, I didn’t think hey, I’m a prodigy,
but I just thought wow, I’m going great.
This is perfect for
me, I am doing so well.
So society says be positive, stay happy,
don’t let the negativity
or drama of the world get you down, smile.
And of course, the video that
I offered up the warning,
not that I was a jerk
about it in the video,
but yes, implying or suggesting that maybe
somebody’s success has come
from luck rather than skill?
Yeah, that’s not gonna be
taken in the most happy light.
That’s not gonna be taken
necessarily positive.
Now, whether or not it’s the
truth remains to be seen.
But point being, I can see why,
I can understand why that
video didn’t get so much love.
I mean, why it had some of the
worst ratings that I’ve had
as far as that 70%, because well yeah,
it was coming across as
being pretty negative.
But, experienced traders say,
and this is the first lesson.
You should always be wanting this.
You should always be looking for somebody
to smack you across the face and say hey,
should I be, do I need
to wake up a little bit?
Is my success, is my really anything,
is this in the right place or
is there maybe some luck here?
Is there maybe some
delusions that are occurring
that are setting me up,
that are giving me false expectations?
And once again, when I got started
I had all sorts of false expectations.
But that’s what
experienced traders say is,
no no no, I’m not gonna sit here
and say oh you’re being negative.
I’m gonna say oh okay,
you’re being realistic.
Please be realistic with me,
please tell me from your past experiences.
So a slap across the face
is actually a good thing.
Now, is it a pleasant thing?
Can it be a little rough around the edges?
Sure, but sometimes that’s
what you need to hear.
You need to hear, and in this
case, people needed to hear,
“You know what?
“Maybe you’re just making
money ’cause of the bubble,
“not because there’s any actual skill.”
And in the markets, they really
are just such a cruel place.
So after I did that video,
the price of ACB ended up doing that.
Went up to $9.96, which
created another move of 28.5%.
So of course, dear haters, naysayers,
negative and jealous people,
which was essentially me,
“Hey, I told you so, Clay.
“You did that video, and
now look where it’s at.
“It moved up another $2,
it’s up another 28.5%.
“I told you you’re just being
negative. You’re just jealous.
“So hey, you know what,
let’s buy some more.
“The Clay guy’s an idiot, no
idea what he’s talking about.”
And not just me, but anybody
that was suggesting that maybe
there’s not much skill involved here,
but just a whole lot of luck,
those people are just jealous,
and you know what, we told ’em so.
We told ’em so that this
is the next big thing.
So I’m buying more.
I mean it’s gone up another
28.5%, I’m buying more.
So let’s see how the rest of this story
has played out up to present day.
So eventually, though,
the bubble did indeed pop.
I realize that’s a balloon,
but humor me. Pretend that’s a bubble.
So really, the part here is
a lot of people get confused
and they think buy the
breakout and wait is a skill.
‘Cause you know, as you saw there,
the price went from $7.75 up to $9.95,
so buy the breakout
and then you just wait.
But why not? It’s worked before.
Think back to that
evolution of overconfidence,
those big old swings.
This strategy has worked
time and time again,
but is it actually a skill? No it’s not.
Within the context of a bubble,
sure it can make you money.
But a true skill, no.
So let’s just see how this all played out,
and like I said, you can see
there, dipped, another dipped,
and then keeps on going
down, and we got another dip.
Bounces again, but way down,
way down, way down again,
and it just continues to
drift lower and lower.
And as of the time of this
video, the price is now at $2.19
which equates to a loss of 71.7%.
The bubble has popped,
skills are now required.
I’m not saying you
couldn’t make money on it,
’cause there is plenty of ways
that you could on the way down.
However, as far as just, “Hey,
buy the breakout and wait.”
To think, remember, you know
people were buying at $9.95
using logic of oh wow,
it’s broken out again.
I’m buying more.
Or I’m adding, or I’m gonna get back in.
And then they just wait,
because every other time they’ve
waited it’s come back up.
But now it’s dropped, think about it.
Some people may very well be
holding through a 71.7% loss.
Here we have another one, CGC.
One of those popular ones
that again, was in that warning video.
So in this situation, the
warning video was done
when it was at 47.8%.
And then this happened, which is truly,
again, the cruelty of the markets.
The market pulled back,
and then of course,
you see what happened, the
price actually went back up.
So it’s one of those, “See,
I told you so, buy the dip.
“Buy the dip.”
But again, once the bubble has popped,
this quote unquote skill
was no longer valid.
The faulty skill being hey,
you just buy the dip and wait.
Buy the dip just means when
the price goes down, you buy.
And in this situation, they
could’ve bought and waited,
and hey, it went back
up to $58, or $51.80,
and who knows, you could’ve
had one of those situations
where now people are buying the breakout,
and maybe bought up there.
But in this situation,
a skill out there that
breeds overconfidence
that I see all the time
from new people is hey,
you just buy the dip and wait,
’cause the price always comes back up.
But no, that’s not actually a skill.
There is more to trading than just that.
So let’s see how this one played out,
and you can see that it dipped again.
So think about it, somebody
coulda bought that dip there,
or bought that dip, bought that dip,
bought that dip right there,
bought that dip, bought that dip,
and this thing just
obviously keeps on dipping,
and a slight little
bounce as of right now.
But it’s at $19.73 for a loss of 58.4%.
The bubble has popped, skill is required.
Once again, I’m not saying
you couldn’t have made money
when the price was going down there,
but when skill is actually needed, yeah,
it’s not quite as easy as
hey, buy the dip and wait,
’cause if you think about that,
that thing has had a
lot of dips since then,
and has just continued to
go further and further down.
Here we have TLRY, a crazy one.
The chart looks a little bit different,
those are actually called candlesticks,
but I wanted to get a
certain price up there,
and you need to use candlesticks for that.
But the idea here is, again,
did that warning video at $80,
and for this one it
wasn’t a matter of hey,
the bubble might pop, on this
one the price essentially had.
However, there’s something else out there
that a lot of people confuse.
Now there was no bubble pop like I said,
’cause it already happened,
but this skill becomes
hey, I’m using this logic.
The price used to be,
and then you insert
some much higher price.
It’s a bargain right now at,
and then you insert a much lower price.
Hey wow, this used to be
trading for that high,
but now it’s only for this price?
And in this situation, it
had hit a high of $300.
And at the point of the video,
I still wanted to include this one
because I know people
were using this logic,
and I could see people using the logic,
wow, it used to be at $300?
But now it’s only at $80?
Hey, that’s a great way to go about it.
You just find situations like this
where the price was
essentially way higher,
and now it’s way lower,
and then you just get in.
But no, that’s not actually a skill.
Now, could it be part of a trading plan?
Sure, but that in and of itself,
that’s not how you make money.
That’s not how it works.
And sure, there’s been
bounces along the way,
but let’s see how this
one ultimately played out.
And you can see that it
went sideways a little bit,
then started to drop, went sideways,
started to drift downwards again,
slight little bounce before dropping,
and then dropping more.
Little bounce, and then
dropping even more,
and then just dropping that much more
for a current price as of this video
at $17.16, which is a loss of 78.6%.
So think about it.
This thing was at $300.
So I mean, if you do the
calculation from $300,
I mean, that’s over a 90% loss.
But even at from $80, the warning, hey,
just realize that just because something
is much lower than where it was
doesn’t mean that that
automatically makes it a great deal,
that automatically makes
it a bargain price.
You gotta keep in mind, yes,
I realize on this one in
particular the bubble has popped,
in fact I would probably argue
this was the leading indicator
that the marijuana stocks
were gonna see continued pull back,
because the bubble had
already popped on this one,
so for those that actually recognize this,
this was kinda the flag
waving, saying hey, take note.
But think about that.
Even though it had already
gone from $300 down to $80,
once again, I’m not
claiming anybody’s stupid,
I can see the logic.
“Wow, used to be at $300, now it’s at $80.
“I’m buying, this is a great deal.”
Now at $17. Crazy.
And then the final one here, CRON.
In this situation, did
the warning video at $21,
and then it broke to new highs
and went up to that level at $24.
So you get, “See, I told you so, Clay.
“You did that, you were warning me,
“you were suggesting that
maybe it’s not skill,
“maybe it’s just luck at $21,
“and now it just broke
out to 52 week highs.”
Meaning the highs its been all year long.
So, “I told you so, Clay.”
And then of course, once again,
the bubble popped after
that, very soon after.
And the skill here that
a lot of people use
that’s not, it can make you money,
and then people think that
it is actually a skill
is trade the trend, buy
52 week high breakouts,
and then of course just wait.
And why wait?
Well, because waiting every single
other time before has worked.
So again, all logical.
Why wouldn’t it work this time?
Why wouldn’t buying the breakout,
I mean it’s trending upwards,
it just went to a yearly high,
why wouldn’t it work?
So buy the breakout and wait.
But no, there is more
to trading than that.
If you think that that is
the only skill you need
is to go with the trend,
buy a 52 week high breakout
and just wait, I’m not
saying it can’t work,
it will work every, it
may work most times,
but all it takes is one time like this
where you wait, and wait, and as you wait,
the price just continues
to go lower and lower.
Sure, there’s been little
bounces along the way
to offer up some false hope,
but over time, it just continues to sink
further and further and
further to the downside.
Where as of right now, the
recording of this video,
$6.67 for a loss of 68.2%.
When skill is required, yeah,
it takes a little bit more than just
simply buying a yearly breakout
or the highest of that year,
and then just waiting
for it to come back up,
’cause yeah sure, it’s
always come back up before.
But what about the time
when it doesn’t happen
because the bubble has popped?
Well then, all of a sudden,
you’ve essentially given
back all your gains,
if not all your gains and then plus,
now you’re actually losing
money from your core principal.
So the key question really is this,
and once again, hopefully
nobody’s gonna say,
“Well Clay, you’re just still a hater.”
Because that’s why I wanted
to offer up some actual proof
that I’m not just throwing
this out in theory,
this stuff has actually happened.
And the marijuana stocks
was just one bubble,
there’s been plenty of
other bubbles before.
But yeah, that’s the key question is
if you’re making money,
are you sure that the quote unquote skill,
are you sure that your
strategy is actually a skill,
or maybe is it just some luck?
It very well may be luck.
And maybe it is a skill,
I’m not saying it’s not.
All I’m saying is that be very
careful of overconfidence,
’cause people become way too
overconfident in their luck.
Now of course, they don’t sit there,
“Why, I’m so lucky I’m gonna keep going.”
Now of course, the human
mind tells them it’s a skill,
but be very careful.
Are you sure that you’re making money?
Are you sure that your strategy,
are you sure that your system
is producing results because it’s a skill,
or is it just maybe you’re getting lucky?
And that’s really the key question
that you need to reflect on,
because I assure you, as I’ve shown,
eventually the luck will run out,
and skill will be required.
But if you’re still applying
what you think to be a skill
after the luck has run out,
as you saw, things can
get very very very nasty.
And then also, I’d encourage you
to look into my trading community.
Now, I get it, all of this,
all was so you could sell
us, pitch your community.
Okay, if me ending at
something that costs $99
is some sort of massive
sales pitch, then fine.
I mean, like I said, I’ve given
the proof, and that’s okay.
But the point here is if
you go there and join,
this is gonna give you access
to experienced traders,
this is gonna give you
access to those people
that can smack you across the face
and say hey, you know what?
I get it that you’re
making money right now,
but have you considered that
you have this that and the
other flaw in your strategy
that can eventually come up and bite you
once the luck runs out?
You know, if you change
this that and the other,
hey, now your strategy’s
becoming more of a skill.
That’s why I’d encourage you
to join the community that I offer.
But you know what?
Even if you maybe were thinking about
joining another community out there,
then go join that one, that’s fine.
So it’s not just you have to join me
’cause everything else is garbage,
I’m not saying that at all.
If you feel more comfortable
with something else,
then go join it, that’s fine.
I just want you to consider
that you know what,
surrounding yourself with
other quality traders,
surrounding yourself
with experienced traders
that can maybe help point
out and answer the question,
oh yeah, with all due respect,
you are probably getting
lucky in that regard,
because this that and the
other don’t quite make sense.
So I wouldn’t quite call this a skill yet.
And that’s what, that’s one of the powers.
A lot of people be like,
“Oh well I joined a community,
“and they’re gonna tell me hot stocks.”
And I mean trade alerts and
all that, that’s part of it,
but there’s also a big part
where you could hold yourself accountable
and try to figure out I don’t know,
am I setting myself up for failure?
Am I getting false expectations,
’cause I have had success,
but I’m not quite sure.
Is this real success,
or is this kinda the false
hope type lucky type success?
And that’s where the community
can really help you out.
So hopefully you enjoyed the video,
and I’m not trying to kick anybody
if you lost money on marijuana stocks,
I’m not trying to kick you when
I’m down, when you’re down,
I mean I’ve been there before.
My point here is just there is a fine line
where overconfidence grows,
overconfidence grows some more,
and then all of a sudden
things get really nasty.
And I wanted to offer up proof that yeah,
this is one of the more recent things
that have happened from
a big bubble perspective,
where things have just
taken a turn for the worst,
and really just continued
to get that much worse.
So I do hope, though, that
marijuana stocks bounce back up
’cause I know there’s people out there
that’s probably still holding them.
So I really do hope they
give some sort of big bounce
so people can get out with minimal losses,
and then kinda start new.
So hopefully that’ll happen,
and only time will tell in that regard.
But if you did enjoy
this video, few things,
please hit that like button
and subscribe to the channel.
Also in the comments section, be honest.
I’m not gonna judge you,
I would commend you.
Were you somebody that lost
money in the marijuana stocks?
I think it would be a very
beneficial thing to see
so that others can witness oh yeah, wow,
look at these people that did fall.
I mean, were you using
one of these skills,
maybe you were buying the dip and waiting,
maybe you were just buying breakouts
and then you would wait.
Maybe you did something where hey, wow,
it used to be that high, and
now it’s only this price,
and now you’ve gotten burned.
So please, in the comments
section, share your experiences.
I’m certainly not gonna judge
you ’cause I’ve been there.
Any experienced trader
would never judge you,
because we’ve all done stupid things,
we’ve all fallen into some of these traps.
So it’s not a matter of judging you,
it’s just a matter of really inspiring,
motivating other people,
that hey, you’re not alone.
And also for brand new
people serving as a warning,
saying yeah, this video is true,
because I did this one
and I ended up losing.
So any experiences that
you’re willing to share
in the comments section
I think would be greatly,
well not think, I know it
would be greatly appreciated.
And I think would go a long way
in kinda just helping other people out
that maybe do read through
the comments section.
But if nothing else,
if you don’t feel like typing up anything
but you did enjoy the video,
please hit that like button,
subscribe to the channel,
and then go, if you’re
looking for a community,
if you wanna surround yourself
with other quality traders,
I hope you consider my community,
which again, you can go
to claytrader.com/team
But thanks for hanging out.
First off, thanks so much for
watching the entire video.
Real quick before you go.
I wanna invite you to a live webinar,
web class, training,
work shop, online event,
whatever you wanna call it.
But it will be me live,
revealing to you what I’ve discovered
that has allowed me to transform myself
from being an employee
to being my own boss,
including how I had only one losing day
out of 73 days in total.
I’m going to cover three
keys that have helped me
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within the markets.
The first key is super weird,
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The second key is super awesome,
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And yeah, the third key, when you hear it,
sounds way too good to be true.
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that is, again, totally live.
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5 thoughts to How To Grow Cannabis Documentary Click To Learn More At 1:28

  1. PSA you want to know what dips to buy go to StockTwits there’s a bunch of “experts” that will tell you which ones to buy… @clay good video I’ve learned how not to fall into traps, now I need to learn how stick with my “ I made enough sell and move on” problem

  2. Ahhh I remember when I was a young trader and bought CGC at $52. Dumb entry but looking glad I'm glad I had a stop when it broke $50. Every stock I see I think of different progressions of a trader I was. Thanks for the video Clay!

  3. Had just gotten into trading in January 2019.

    I bought CRON at $18 in March. And then it kept going down and down and down…… and down. But I held on thinking eventually it will come back up. In hindsight, I made so many rookie mistakes. On top of that I missed out on so many easy opportunities this year (AMD, TSLA, ROKU) and so much potential experience I could have gained. FML.

    Now it is at $7! The only reason I am hanging on is because I think it will jump as soon as they shift the company to the States in early 2020.

    If you were me would you get out now or wait a few more months?

  4. Thanks Clay for sharing this video, you are awesome. In all your videos, sharing your experiences with real facts, appreciate your efforts, learning a lot from your videos. In fact, these are actual things happening in our day to day trading.